Political Polarization and Violence: Evidence from a Peace Referendum in Colombia

Abstract

Political polarization can result in a lack of compromise and cooperation between groups, which can ultimately lead to violence. This article examines the impact of a close peace referendum held in Colombia in October 2016. It employs a regression discontinuity approach to show that the narrow results of the referendum provoked an outbreak of violence in municipalities that rejected the agreement. The surge in violence emphasizes the fact that, in order for a democracy to be consolidated, not all groups must have a chance of winning an election. Democracy is only stable when one group dominates; therefore, when political support is evenly balanced, it can lead to radicalization and violence. Political polarization regarding a peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC insurgency could have created a volatile and dangerous environment that increased the risk of violence.