Violence against women activists in Colombia reduces both women’s candidacies and voter support for female candidates in mayoral elections, driven by fear of retaliation and masculine political norms. Using novel data on activist killings, we show that these effects are mitigated by women’s visibility in peace processes and prior FARC control. Our findings highlight how the gender of victims shapes the political consequences of violence in conflict-affected democracies.

Studying the recent Colombian experience, we find that the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency in 2014 led to a surge in the targeting of community leaders in former FARC strongholds.

This paper examines Colombia’s 2023 ceasefires with organized criminal groups, intended to reduce violence and enable peace talks. Using difference-in-differences, we find no effect on homicides or massacres but increases in extortion, forced recruitment, terrorist attacks, and criminal governance where state presence receded. These results underscore the unintended consequences of poorly designed ceasefires and the need for stronger planning and oversight.

Partial peace agreements with some non-state actors can disrupt power dynamics and trigger new violence. Using a regression discontinuity approach, the analysis shows increased violence by non-FARC groups in municipalities that rejected the 2016 Colombian peace agreement. The peace agreement acted as an economic shock, altering incentives for violence, especially in areas with significant coca cultivation and gold mining.

We show that bond prices fall by an average of 0.7 points after the onset of state-involved conflict.

The paper specifically investigates the impact of aerial eradication operations on civilian victimization perpetrated by non-state armed groups, with a particular emphasis on the FARC insurgency and paramilitary groups.