Partial peace agreements with some non-state actors can disrupt power dynamics and trigger new violence. Using a regression discontinuity approach, the analysis shows increased violence by non-FARC groups in municipalities that rejected the 2016 Colombian peace agreement. The peace agreement acted as an economic shock, altering incentives for violence, especially in areas with significant coca cultivation and gold mining.
We show that bond prices fall by an average of 0.7 points after the onset of state-involved conflict.
The paper specifically investigates the impact of aerial eradication operations on civilian victimization perpetrated by non-state armed groups, with a particular emphasis on the FARC insurgency and paramilitary groups.
Studying the recent Colombian experience, we find that the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency in 2014 led to a surge in the targeting of community leaders in former FARC strongholds.