Paz Total? How can a ceasefire backfire

Abstract

Ceasefires are often seen as a tool to reduce violence and hostilities while peace negotiations take place or to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance. However, poorly planned and executed truces can backfire. This paper examines the 2023 ceasefires decreed by Colombia’s government to to reduce violence and foster peace talks with several organized criminal groups simultaneously. Using difference-in-differences, we find that while more salient, identifiable and visible forms of violence such as homicides and massacres were at best unaffected by the ceasefire, other forms of violence against civilians such as extortion, forced recruitment of minors, terrorist attacks, and criminal governance largely in the areas that experienced a retreat of government forces. Our findings highlight the unintended consequences of inadequately designed policies and emphasize the need for strategic planning and oversight in ceasefire agreements..